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Prediction for CME (2025-04-13T08:00:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2025-04-13T08:00Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/38357/-1
CME Note: A southeastern halo with a very complex system of several fronts that seem to be moving/expanding in unison. It is difficult to differentiate the bulk vs. shock components of the CME. There seems to be the more dense more southern part to the SW and also a fainter more 'halo' front. The source is a filament erupting starting 2025-04-13T05:00ZZ, stretching from S30E01 to S15W25 as seen in SDO AIA 304 (with more minor dimming reaching S01W30 as seen in SDO AIA 193), and centered ~S18W15. The arrival signature is characterized by an amplification of magnetic field components with Btotal increasing from 6nT at 2025-04-15T16:36Z to 17nT at 16:38Z and 27 nT by 18:24Z. Two subsequent increases in solar wind speed is observed, increasing from 400 km/s at 2025-04-15T16:36Z to ~480 km/s at 16:37Z and later an increase from 475 km/s to 600 km/s starting at 19:40Z, with density increasing to 35 p/cc at this time as well. This signature is likely associated with the arrival of CME: 2025-04-13T08:00Z and CME: 2025-04-13T08:12Z, with possible influence from the arrival of CME: 2025-04-12T00:48Z, CME: 2025-04-13T00:12Z and CME: 2025-04-13T07:48Z. Magnetic field components become more stable over time after 2025-04-16T02:00Z and by 2025-04-16T10:00Z become very smooth with B_z oriented in the negative sector.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2025-04-15T16:36Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 7.67

Predicted Arrival Time: 2025-04-16T19:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 30.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 6.0
Prediction Method: Other (SIDC)
Prediction Method Note: 
SIDC URSIGRAM 50413
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 13 Apr 2025, 1300UT
...

Coronal mass ejections: A long filament crossing the central meridian to
the east of the disc center has erupted around 23:00 UTC on April 12. An
associated south-eastward wide coronal mass ejection (CME) was observed in
the LASCO/C2 and C3 imagery. The possible impact on Earth related to this
eruption is currently being analysed. A neighbouring filament eruption to
the south of SIDC Sunspot Group 398 (NOAA Active Region 4056) has occurred
in the early UTC morning on April 13. An associated fast partial halo CME
was visible in LASCO/C2 data around 08:24 UTC. The CME is expected to reach
the Earth. Further analysis for the expected arrival time is ongoing,
possibly as early as April 15th.

SIDC URSIGRAM 50414
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 14 Apr 2025, 1230UT
....
Geomagnetism:
Mostly unsettled to active conditions are
expected globally and locally over the next 24 hours, with a chance for
moderate storm intervals due to the possible early arrival of the
Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejections (ICMEs) associated with the CME that
lifted off around 23:00 UTC on April 12 and the partial halo CME that
lifted off around 08:30 UTC on April 13.


SIDC URSIGRAM 50415
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 15 Apr 2025, 1230UT
...Moderate storm conditions (NOAA Kp
6, K BEL 6), with possible major storm intervals (NOAA Kp 7, K BEL 7), are
expected globally and locally over the next 24 hours, due to the expected
arrival of the Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejections (ICMEs) associated
with the CME that lifted off around 23:00 UTC on April 12 and the partial
halo CME that lifted off around 08:30 UTC on April 13.

---------------------------
From: Solar Influences Data analysis Center 
Date: Sunday, April 13, 2025 at 12:25 PM
Subject: CME arrival alert

This mail contains the xml version of the CME arrival alert.
expected arrival time: 2025-04-16T19:00:00
time_uncertainty: 12
min_estimated_peak_K: 4
max_estimated_peak_K: 6
probability_of_arrival: 30






  
  
    
    
      
        
        
          
          
          
          
          
          
          
          
            
              
              
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                        2025-04-16T19:00:00
Lead Time: 49.18 hour(s)
Difference: -26.40 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Anna Chulaki (M2M SWAO) on 2025-04-13T15:25Z
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